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Category: Earnings Preview

  • RSKD Q2 2025

    RSKD Q2 2025

    Riskified (RSKD) is set to report Q2 2025 earnings before market open on August 18, 2025. Analysts expect revenue of $80.37 million and an EPS of –$0.08 per share. Full-year 2025 estimates stand at $341 million in revenue and –$0.20 EPS, with modest upward revisions over the last 90 days.

    Reasons the Stock Could Rise

    • Track record of beats and strong Q1 performance: In Q1 2025, RSKD delivered revenue of $82.39M (↑ 7.9% YoY) and beat EPS estimates with EPS of $0.03 vs. $0.01, sending shares up nearly 8% the next day.
    • Robust fundamentals: Q1 also highlighted a 100% renewal rate on top-20 contracts, six straight quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, $357M in cash, and zero debt. Guidance for FY 2025 calls for revenue of $333M–$346M and adjusted EBITDA of $18M–$26M.

    Risks That Could Weigh on the Stock

    • Guidance & macro risks: Full-year EPS revisions from –$0.18 to –$0.20 and modest consensus expectations suggest limited near-term upside. Macro headwinds could also slow new customer acquisition or expansion.
    • High execution expectations: The market may be pricing in another beat; any miss or softer commentary on growth cadence could spark a sharp pullback.

    Options Market as a Sentiment Gauge

    • Implied volatility (IV): The 30-day implied volatility for RSKD is about 64.7%, placing it near the 44th percentile—signaling moderate expectations for a post-earnings move.
    • Liquidity & sentiment: Options chains and volatility charts show relatively balanced positioning, with no extreme skew in calls vs. puts.

    Bottom Line

    Riskified enters Q2 earnings with momentum from Q1’s beat, strong customer renewals, and a cash-rich, debt-free balance sheet. If management confirms growth and profitability trends, the stock could extend higher. But with earnings expectations already elevated and EPS revisions ticking down, any disappointment could trigger a swift correction. Watch the results, commentary on contract renewals, and whether implied volatility compresses post-earnings as a signal of market relief.

  • OKLO Q2 2025

    OKLO Q2 2025

    Oklo Q2 Earnings Preview

    Oklo is scheduled to report Q2 2025 results after market close on August 11, 2025. In Q1, the company posted EPS of –$0.07, beating estimates of –$0.11 by $0.04. Analyst consensus for Q2 ranges from –$0.14 to –$0.10, averaging around –$0.12 per share.

    Reasons the Stock Could Rise

    • Strong execution & strategic momentum: Q1’s EPS beat and updates on the Aurora microreactor, expansion of customer pipeline, and advancing licensing progress demonstrate execution capability.
    • Sound financial footing: Oklo remains on track with its 2025 cash-use plan (~$65–$80 million), supporting operational sustainability through key milestones.

    Risks That Could Weigh on the Stock

    • Execution & regulatory risk: Delays in licensing or commercialization would likely rattle confidence—Oklo still has no meaningful revenue.
    • Capital-intensive model: If Q2 misses EPS or cash-burn guidance, investor caution could increase sharply, especially if dilution fears reemerge.

    Options Market as a Sentiment Gauge

    • Elevated volatility expectations: 30-day implied volatility sits around ~99–100%, reflecting high market anticipation for a big move.
    • Bullish option positioning: Recent activity shows implied vol at 101.45%, heavy trading in near-term calls, and a put/call ratio of 0.39—indicating traders are leaning bullish into the report.

    Bottom Line: Oklo’s Q2 is a binary catalyst. Strong progress on technology, licensing, and cash discipline could send shares sharply higher. But missed milestones, heavier burn, or signs of dilution could cause rapid downside. Watch the call for guidance on timelines and whether implied volatility collapses afterward, signaling market relief.

  • ASTS Q2 2025

    ASTS Q2 2025

    AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is set to release its Q2 2025 results after market close on August 11, 2025. Analysts project revenue to rise from about $1 million a year ago to roughly $5.15 million, with an EPS loss of around −$0.19 to −$0.21 (Zacks, MarketBeat).

    Reasons the Stock Could Rise

    • Strategic partnerships: New collaborations with Vodafone Idea to expand satellite mobile coverage in India, plus defense applications via Fairwinds Technologies, could bolster long-term revenue potential.
    • Debt reduction & infrastructure build-out: ASTS retired ~$225 million of convertible debt and acquired new S-Band spectrum for ~$64.5 million, enabling broader low-Earth orbit coverage at speeds up to 120 Mbps.

    Risks That Could Weigh on the Stock

    • Execution pressure & competition: Scaling satellite deployment is capital-intensive, with growing competition from Starlink and Globalstar.
    • Dilution & sentiment: Recent analyst downgrades—Scotiabank cut its target from $45.40 to $42.90—plus insider selling and capital raises could erode confidence (QuiverQuant).

    Options Market as a Sentiment Barometer

    • Implied volatility sits around 93–95%, with IV rank in the low-mid 20s—signaling traders are pricing in a sizable post-earnings swing.
    • The expected move from the front-month options suggests a meaningful, but not extreme, shift (Barchart).

    Bottom Line: ASTS’s earnings are a binary event. If management delivers on partnerships, debt reduction, and spectrum expansion, the stock could rally sharply. But delays, dilution, or mounting losses may trigger steep declines. Watch the call for guidance on execution, revenue trajectory, and post-earnings IV compression.