Riskified (RSKD) is set to report Q2 2025 earnings before market open on August 18, 2025. Analysts expect revenue of $80.37 million and an EPS of –$0.08 per share. Full-year 2025 estimates stand at $341 million in revenue and –$0.20 EPS, with modest upward revisions over the last 90 days.
Reasons the Stock Could Rise
- Track record of beats and strong Q1 performance: In Q1 2025, RSKD delivered revenue of $82.39M (↑ 7.9% YoY) and beat EPS estimates with EPS of $0.03 vs. $0.01, sending shares up nearly 8% the next day.
- Robust fundamentals: Q1 also highlighted a 100% renewal rate on top-20 contracts, six straight quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, $357M in cash, and zero debt. Guidance for FY 2025 calls for revenue of $333M–$346M and adjusted EBITDA of $18M–$26M.
Risks That Could Weigh on the Stock
- Guidance & macro risks: Full-year EPS revisions from –$0.18 to –$0.20 and modest consensus expectations suggest limited near-term upside. Macro headwinds could also slow new customer acquisition or expansion.
- High execution expectations: The market may be pricing in another beat; any miss or softer commentary on growth cadence could spark a sharp pullback.
Options Market as a Sentiment Gauge
- Implied volatility (IV): The 30-day implied volatility for RSKD is about 64.7%, placing it near the 44th percentile—signaling moderate expectations for a post-earnings move.
- Liquidity & sentiment: Options chains and volatility charts show relatively balanced positioning, with no extreme skew in calls vs. puts.
Bottom Line
Riskified enters Q2 earnings with momentum from Q1’s beat, strong customer renewals, and a cash-rich, debt-free balance sheet. If management confirms growth and profitability trends, the stock could extend higher. But with earnings expectations already elevated and EPS revisions ticking down, any disappointment could trigger a swift correction. Watch the results, commentary on contract renewals, and whether implied volatility compresses post-earnings as a signal of market relief.